The Sharpe Ratio that is referred to in the financial world is named after William F. Sharpe, a Nobel laureate in economics. It’s simply a measure of calculation for a risk-adjusted return and is the industry standard when it comes to doing such things. That’s the average return earned in excess of what is considered to be risk free assets. In general, this normally is suggested as US Treasury bills, which is considered to be “risk free.” The Sharpe Ratio works as follows: the average rate of return for your portfolio is subtracted by the best available rate of return of a risk-free security. Then, you divide that number by a standard deviation of the portfolio’s return. Essentially, a return of “zero” is the same as a treasury bill. A number of 1.0 or above is attractive, a return of 2.0 is even better, and one of 3.0 is excellent. These numbers are used to compare one portfolio to another, in order to see whether you are getting acceptable returns for holding risky assets over risk-free assets. Essentially, it’s a way to compare 2 portfolios in an even playing field.
Most of you will have had some type of study in the idea of support and resistance, but you do not recognize the psychology behind it. There is a reason for “market memory”, which is the phenomenon that what was once important becomes important again. This is typically seen as a situation that allows traders that are in the wrong side of the trade to get out with little or no damage. What I mean by this is that if you have been shorting a market, and then it rallies significantly, it will quite often find support at that area that was previous resistance. However, do you understand why this is? The attached chart is of the GBP/CHF pair, and you can clearly see that there is the 1.30 level marked on the chart as both support and resistance. We have recently broken out above that level, and then pulled back to test that area and see signs of support. The support is a byproduct of a couple of things going on at the same time. Initially, there were sellers there and now they find the market offering them an opportunity to get out of a bad position at essentially “breakeven.” They will take that opportunity, as they have been feeling a bit of pain as of late. By closing their short position, they are buying, and therefore adding bullish pressure. Beyond that, there are people who have missed out on the breakout, and they know that those people or their willing to get out of the market with little or no damage. It is a huge sigh of relief for those people who had been short the pair, and now those who have missed the opportunity to take advantage of the breakout are willing to go long as well. In other words, the chart simply reflects psychology of trading participants. Keep this in mind when looking at potential trading opportunities.
In this video, I discussed designing a risk management system. While there are literally hundreds of articles and books written on this very topic, the one thing the most traders don’t understand is that it is the most important aspect of trading and the main reason why traders are either successful or not. Most traders can come across systems on the Internet that says risk a certain percentage, and then the following “hard numbers” a peer in the statistics. The biggest problem with that is that you don’t know how many wins or losses you will have in a row. Because of this, I am going to address something that’s much more important than the hard numbers: a risk management system that you can actually use.
There are several ways to copy other traders, and as a result I can only give you a general overview as to how this works. You can get trades via SMS, expert advisors in your MT4 trading station, websites, newsletters, videos, and even social trading sites. Because of this, there is a plethora of ways to copy other traders around the world. The biggest problem of course is that not everybody is profitable over the longer term. After all, most retail traders lose money over the longer term, so you have to be careful about who you are copying. One of the easiest ways to get into this is that you simply do not make money on your own, so therefore you are looking for somebody who is better at trading than yourself. However, you have to make sure that the trading record is verifiable. There will be plenty of people willing to sell you their trading signals around the world, but the problem is that most of them don’t make money over the longer term. With that being the case, make sure that there is some type of verifiable trading record before you give anyone money. Typically, any trade copying system or signal service is charged monthly, as it’s difficult to pay a person is like you do with managed Forex or futures. After all, they do not have access to the money in your account, they just simply give you the trades that they are taking. This can come in the form of an expert advisor that automatically trades for you, or one that sends the signal and you decide whether or not to follow. All of the other methods of course have no way of placing trades for you, so for the most part you do have the ability to override the decision. One of the biggest problems with these services is that typically they are smaller traders. When you look at big firms, they have risk managers who control the traders and allow them only a certain percentage of money to trade. The smaller trader doesn’t necessarily have that luxury so you do have to keep that in mind. Quite frankly, I’m an average in of learning how to trade first and then deciding whether or not somebody else should make your decision. Having said that, there is the possibility of making profits this way.
Designing a trading strategy is one of the most important things you will do as you trying to get your career as a traitor off the ground. Much like determining your goals, if you do not have a trading strategy you are simply swinging wildly and a market that is dominated by professional traders who have access to an almost unlimited amount of knowledge and capital. After all, some of the people in this market to you are jumping into are trading for large banks and hedge funds, and therefore have massive amounts of support, well beyond what the individual trader will have. With that being the case, it’s very important that you decide how you want to trade by developing a strategy BEFORE you start trading with real money. In other words, you are going to need a demo account, which is easily found at most brokerages. You need to figure out what indicators, position size, trend following mechanisms, or anything else that you feel comfortable with in order to make money. While there are a multitude of trading strategies freely available on the Internet, the most important thing is to be able to trust your strategy. The only way you can do that is if you will build up some type of history with that particular strategy, via the demo account. For example, you can have a strategy that’s proven to work overtime, but if you are not comfortable trading it, you WILL mess it up. But by having a history with this particular strategy, you know that over the longer term you were going to make money all things being equal. Most strategies can work overtime, it really comes down to the trader and whether or not they have the ability to follow that strategy. Most do not, and that is one of the biggest reasons why people lose money in the markets. If you have a strategy that averages a 15% return every year, you truly can make money like that, but you have to be able to trust and follow your trading strategy. By far, that is the biggest challenge the traders tend to face.
There are a multitude of places to find trading robots. Not only is there the MetaTrader terminal, but there’s the mql4 page, as well as the mql5 page online. These are the “official” marketplaces, but keep in mind that these expert advisors are not written by anybody special. Quite frankly, the gist traders around the world that have the ability to code. Being a good programmer doesn’t necessarily make you a good trader. As I record this, there are over 240 pages of robots that you can choose from, varying drastically and cost. Ratings of course are all over the place as well, as some will have performed better than others at certain points in the market. But that’s the biggest problem, most algorithms can only perform in the market conditions that they are optimize for. Because of this, most automated traders will use several different strategies. Of interest is that some of the larger firms in the United States are now starting to push robots, including Ally. They are known more for retirement accounts, but they are starting to offer currencies as well, and have an entire section devoted to robots. There are also firms around the world that specialize in automated trading, such as the Forex broker RoboForex in Singapore, where automated trading seems to be a bit more popular. Quite frankly, one of the things that you should keep in mind is that large banks such as Goldman Sachs spend millions of dollars on algorithms. It is very unlikely that you are going to find one for $50 that can match that type of performance. Remember, they are trading with large and real size, meaning that it is actually crucial that their algorithms make money. While many of these robots can make money from time to time, in the end it is essentially putting your finances in the hands of someone else that you don’t even know. If you are going to do that, you will probably be better off trying to find a financial fiduciary it to trade your money for you. If you do choose to go the automated row, you can write your own script. The MQL4 programming language is rather simple, being a derivative of C++. There is a complete and thorough set of documents online, and plenty of examples. However, one of the benefits of being a retail trader is that you can simply follow the market. You’re not trying to move it, you’re not trying to outsmart it. If something is rising in value, you buy it. It’s really that simple.
One of the most important things you can do as a trader is to determine your goals. Quite frankly, if you do not have some type of idea of what you are trying to accomplish, you will simply find yourself trading blindly, and probably impulsive. Simply put, the easiest goal to come up with is to be profitable. Obviously, you are not looking to lose money, but there are many nuances about trading that you need to think about before throwing money into the market. One of the biggest mistakes traders make is that they come up with unrealistic goals. For example, there are a lot of products out there that will tout the idea of making a ridiculous amount of money. Recently, I have seen a black box system suggests that 50% returns per week were common. If you do the math, a 50% return is absolutely outrageous, as the compounding interest will turn $100 into over $1 million in just 23 weeks. This is not realistic, and anybody telling you anything different is obviously trying to sell you something. Not all goals have to be based on returns. After all, you want to perhaps have a goal of sticking to your trading strategy. Or perhaps you have a goal of being able to trade just one particular hour out of the day. You can also find yourself trying to trade only long-term trades, more or less like an investor and as a passive type of business. There is a multitude of different things that you can think of in order to determine goals, as some people will simply do it for entertainment, while others will try to make a living off of a larger account. Other people will use the account to grow money while adding money into it every paycheck, so that they can speed up the rate of compounding. Either way, you need to know where you’re going first in order to have some of the most important things that a professional trader can have: a trading strategy, a risk management system, a set of rules from which to operate, and quite frankly some organization to your trading day.
Traders can enter the market in several different ways, and contingent orders tend to be one of the favorite. The contention order is simply in order that is triggered if certain amount of conditions is met. For example, you may send an order into your broker to buy the Euro if the EUR/USD pair reaches the 1.12 handle. This is the essence of a contingent order. There are several different types of contingent orders, but the most common are the following 6: the buy limit order, the sell limit order, the buy stop order, the sell stop order, the buy stop limit, and the sell stop limit. Because of this, the average trader has several different opportunities to enter the market in various conditions. These are the trading orders available in the Metatrader platform, the most common one out there. There are other less common contingent orders that you can run across, but these are by far the ones you will use the most. A buy limit order allows traders to specify the price that they are willing to pay for security, and the broker guarantees to honor that price or even better when it becomes available. The sell limit order simply does the same thing, but from the sell side. A buy stop order is an order that you give the broker to buy a security at a price above the current price, and is triggered when the market touches her goes through the buy stop price. Quite often this is used in order to take advantage of momentum building up. A sell stop order is often referred to as the stop loss order, it’s in order to close a position once the security reaches a specific price. This is a way to protect yourself from losses. The buy stop limit is executed when a specific price reached, as it becomes a limit order to start buying the asset at a specific price or better. The sell stop limit is a sell order that is triggered once we reach a specific price, and is guaranteed to be the price you ask or better. This is a great way to enter the marketplace while stepping away. In other words, if the move happens in the middle the night you can know how you’re going to enter the market. Obviously, stop loss orders are crucial, so you need to protect your trading accounts while you are not at your desk. At the very least, you should have a stop loss order to protect yourself from disaster. However, contingent orders to offer you an incredible amount of flexibility.
One of the most recent developments in the trading world is the concept of social trading. Initially, this was found mainly in the currency trading world, but has been adopted by stock traders and commodity traders as well. Essentially, social trading is a place where traders will post their trading ideas, and go back and forth with each other on potential trades. Some places will do it automatically, meaning that there is some type of software that you plug into your trading platform to automatically post positions, while others will rely on you to input your trade. In theory, this is a great idea. However, in practice it is much different. Most people who look at social trading are looking for someone to make their trades for them. In other words, they are waiting for someone to tell them what to do. Typically, what happens is that the new trader will see somebody in the rankings that has made an astronomical return over the last couple of weeks. However, by the time that person gets that high up on the leaderboard, they almost always turn around and fall hard. You will see things like 400% gains in a week, followed by somebody being wiped out. This is because they do not understand leverage, and the new traders that follow them will suffer the same fate.
Traders can enter the market in several different ways, and contingent orders tend to be one of the favorite. The contention order is simply in order that is triggered if certain amount of conditions is met. For example, you may send an order into your broker to buy the Euro if the EUR/USD pair reaches the 1.12 handle. This is the essence of a contingent order. There are several different types of contingent orders, but the most common are the following 6: the buy limit order, the sell limit order, the buy stop order, the sell stop order, the buy stop limit, and the sell stop limit. Because of this, the average trader has several different opportunities to enter the market in various conditions. These are the trading orders available in the Metatrader platform, the most common one out there. There are other less common contingent orders that you can run across, but these are by far the ones you will use the most. A buy limit order allows traders to specify the price that they are willing to pay for security, and the broker guarantees to honor that price or even better when it becomes available. The sell limit order simply does the same thing, but from the sell side. A buy stop order is an order that you give the broker to buy a security at a price above the current price, and is triggered when the market touches her goes through the buy stop price. Quite often this is used in order to take advantage of momentum building up. A sell stop order is often referred to as the stop loss order, it’s in order to close a position once the security reaches a specific price. This is a way to protect yourself from losses. The buy stop limit is executed when a specific price reached, as it becomes a limit order to start buying the asset at a specific price or better. The sell stop limit is a sell order that is triggered once we reach a specific price, and is guaranteed to be the price you ask or better. This is a great way to enter the marketplace while stepping away. In other words, if the move happens in the middle the night you can know how you’re going to enter the market. Obviously, stop loss orders are crucial, so you need to protect your trading accounts while you are not at your desk. At the very least, you should have a stop loss order to protect yourself from disaster. However, contingent orders to offer you an incredible amount of flexibility.





















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