One of the hardest things for new traders to do is to trust themselves. Beyond that, they find it even more difficult to trust their trading systems. This is normally do to a lack of testing, which is one of the most important things that the professional trader will do. It doesn’t matter if you are trading with a robot algorithmic trading system, or if you are trading based upon written rules, if you do not trust the system, you are bound to change its implementation, and therefore get much different results than expected. One of the easiest ways to combat this is to test a system over a multitude of conditions, or at the very least a multitude of trades. There are a couple of ways to go about this, but all should involve demo testing. If your system performs well through demo conditions, it should perform the same in the real world. After all, you are using real-world data and pricing.
When it comes to psychology, overtrading is probably one of the most common issues the traders face. This is a combination of a fear of missing a move, and of course simple boredom. Unfortunately, most traders enter the Forex markets due to the desire to get wealthy, and normally are attracted to them originally by some type of advertisement promising easy riches. It is because of this that traders typically are not patient enough to wait for a promising trade, and they get involved in the market before it is wise. This typically means that they will break their strategy, and sometimes even trade against it. Looking at the USD/CZK pair, you can see plainly on this chart that the US dollar has been falling against the Czech koruna for a very long time. This is an exotic pair, but it shows the one thing that most Forex markets will do: trend over the long term. Clearly, this was an easy trade in hindsight, simply selling the US dollar was the way to go. Unfortunately, many traders do not simplify their trading to this point. When you look at the chart, you can see that there were occasional rally is that occurred, but at the end of the day they all sold off. By simply selling the rallies instead of trying to aggressively short every time you felt like pulling the trigger, you got better entries, and therefore better profits. Alternately, I can promise you that there were plenty of people out there willing to buying this pair because it had “gone too far” and figured that it was due for a bounce. Those people got hurt as you can plainly see. Both trades are born out of boredom, and the desire to get rich overnight. This leads to overtrading, which goes against proper money management, clear thinking, and most systems that I can think of. Overtrading is an absolute killer of trading accounts, because even if you are correct most of the time, at the very least you are paying more in transaction fees that are necessary.
When a new trader enters the financial markets, it makes a lot of sense that they would go on to forums and search out information. They will also go to other websites, and perhaps look at technical analysis and seek out the help of so-called “gurus.” This leads to a phenomenon known as “system hopping”, hopefully something that you will spend little to no time involved with. System hopping when you first start trading is natural, because you are seeking out the best route to take going forward. Obviously, when you start a new endeavor, it makes sense that you would search around for the best way to go about it. It’s very easy to be convinced that somebody knows more than you, because you feel that you don’t know much. While this may or may not be true, that doesn’t mean that the other person is correct. Even if they are, it doesn’t mean that they are correct 100% of the time. Therein lies the rub, new traders are looking for the impossible, the Holy Grail of trading. It’s very typical to see a trader attempt a few trades using a system, taking a loss or 2, and then moving on to the next one. Unfortunately, they don’t give the system time to prove itself. Even worse, they do it with a live money instead of a demo account, because they are in a rush to become wealthy. I believe this is mainly driven by the “get rich quick” attitude of most advertising in the financial world. They are on to the next system before the original one has had a fair opportunity to prove itself. The reality is that most systems that are out there have the opportunity to make you money, but you need to give them the chance to do so. A perfect example is the moving average crossover system, something that a lot of people don’t like. However, over the longer term it does tend to make money. That’s the reason it’s been around for so many decades. It takes a trending market, and markets don’t necessarily trend all the time, but the gains far outweigh the losses longer term. However, most traders simply do not have the wherewithal to let the statistical advantage work itself out. They are already on to the next best thing, at least for the next few trades.
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Alberto CannApril 19, 2020 at 5:42 pm
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